I think I just scared the living daylights out of a few long term craft industry members.

Now that I have your attention, I thought I'd wade in on a topic that everyone seems to be dancing around- the proverbial elephant in the room: Is scrapbooking going away?

Naaaahhhh.

But like every category it has hit a plateau and this is the time when the folks who weren't really making it, fall off. It's when companies that haven't been watching their expenditures are getting some tough love from the accountants and the beancounters have cut up those credit cards. Instead of making minimums with individual vendors retailers are turning to trusted distributors. And then there's this really inconvenient "we're not in a recession yet but the average man on the street thinks we are." thing. The mindset that someone should not be spending money right now on "superfluous" stuff is a challenge.

Consolidation will continue, I expect more by year's end or right before CHA Winter. The latest being Around the Block becoming part of the UltraPro group which also includes 7 Gypsies and Chatterbox.

As we regroup on the plateau, I predict some fundamental changes in how business is done. And for the most part, these changes will strengthen the bottom lines for vendors and retailers alike.

1. Fewer new product introductions- let's face it the velocity of new product that we taught our customers to expect did not work in our favor. Fewer, more well considered collections are better for the vendor but also for the retailer. Folks- it's ok to reorder a line that blew out in the first week!

2. Fewer freebies. Again, this is a monster we created- we have to own up to that. It was pretty heady in the early days and many companies had super marketers behind the brands with clever promotional ideas. There was so much free product shared around in the early days of the industry that customers, whether consumers or retailers, expect it.  Now that those promo dollars are fewer and far between there are fewer freebies. It's not that companies are trying to be cheap- it's just that some items need to be cut in order to hold the line on product price. Think of it as cutting calories.

I heard some grumbling about it at the show which saddens me. It's going to take discipline to wean folks off the freebie expectation.If you base decisions about classes and placing orders just on the freebies- you are going to miss out on some great opportunities. I'd also like to offer this up... yarn retailers are doing just fine and you don't see them giving away balls of yarn.

3. More partnerships- this is one of my favorites because it makes so much sense. But some great partnership ideas have been weakened over the debate about who is in control or who leads the organization/execution. That's a good item to get in the earlier talks.

4. Embrace papercrafting- It's not just 12 X12 pages- they may be your bread and butter but cardmaking will remain strong as will the use of stamps.

5. A need to niche market- there are some emerging consumer groups that are open to papercrafting & scrapbooking. Are we speaking the same language? Do they relate to the projects we show in ads and in magazines? We need more diversity on a variety of levels and this is going to take some brainstorming to work out out to target these groups with unique messages.

The scrapbook category is not "done" but it does need to evolve. Sometimes companies and product lines stumble. What will matter now is the integrity of our industry members, how they will work hard to get more professional education, how they will partner with could-be competitors, how they will invest differently to build their brands. There are many business owners who have all of their wealth tied up in their scrapbooking businesses. How do we ensure they will see a return on their investment?

By working together, adding value but not random freebies and by making an investment in learning how to run a business. I look forward to joining you on the climb up to the next level. If there are any topics you specifically want me to address, please let me know!--Beth